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Tomorrow, what's gonna happen is what we've been expecting. Democrats are gonna lose the House and probably the Senate (even if they hold on it's not gonna make a difference really.)

The President will probably work with Boehner on cutting the deficit for the short term and the debt for the long term. Or else he won't get anything done and he seems to like getting things done. So that's what'll happen.

The Tea Party will get disappointed. Similar to how the left got disappointed that the President got some (like 70%?) of what they wanted but not all, they were disappointed because of how much energy they put into the 2008 campaigns. The same will probably happen to the Tea Party. There's no way they can get everything they want because the President will have a magic super-duper veto pen. So much effort has been put into '10 that anything short of amazing will disappoint them and with the President signing on to cuts, he'll probably reclaim the Independents in the center and the Tea Party will lose steam.

If the Republicans DON'T give into the cuts and budget proposals the President and the few wandering Democrats propose, then they'll be seen as very disingenuous and it'll show. This election is very anti-Democratic, not very Pro-Republican and the polls show that. Polls also show 80% of the country support compromise and only 18% favoring the Republicans campaign promise to NOT compromise. Democrats have a history of compromising (Clinton's Presidency, and this presidency have shown some major compromises) while Republicans in recent memory don't (they had the Congress in the last decade so they didn't have to, but they didn't compromise with the Dems on anything really major with the exception of Scott Brown, Susan Collins, and Olympia Snowe.)

If the Republicans DON'T compromise, it'll work against them. If they do, it'll be in their favor but also in the President's favor which they may want to avoid but they probably can't. They really have few options. The one advantage of losing is that you can afford to be seen as doing nothing like the Republicans post-2008 were doing. It worked very well for them.

This will continue:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39948454
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39945872
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39946785

You'll continue to see a moderate economic recovery. That'll probably bring us to about 7-8% by 2012. A moderate economic recovery will mean strong consumer confidence which will mean positive poll numbers for those in office. People can care less about issues, they just care about their money. (Recession for Carter meant Reagan!, Recession for Bush41 meant Clinton, and this was a guy who had a 68% approval rating like 6-10 months before the election which everyone expected would be his reelection. Recession for Bush meant Obama.)

It would really take another recession for the Dems to lose the White House and that won't happen for two reasons:
1. Double-dip is unlikely because the economy has been moderately growing (nearly 1 million jobs in the private sector this year, 5 quarters of moderate growth...not really the stuff double-dips are made of.)

Roosevelt was overwhelming reelected with like 10% unemployment (was half than when he got into office though), Reagan was overwhelming reelected with 7.5 unemployment (it was 7.4% when he got into office but it peaked at 10.8% under his watch...this unemployment trend seems to be oddly similar to what's gonna happen with this recession though we're peaking at 10.2 and are gonna see something like 7.6 on election day) 

2. If there WAS a double-dip, Bernanke would bring in more QE because they'll probably blame him and he cares and he's shown that he's willing. They might hold off on QE because inflation seems to be getting back to normal so no one really cares about deflation TOO much, but if the economy were to get worse, and I don't see it happening, Bernanke would step right in. QE could be wrong in the longterm but it would provide a short term boost that would help officials in office.

Dems will reclaim Congress and the White House in '12, unless Rubio is on the ticket as VP in 2012. That would change everything because Hispanics could be split Dem and Republican potentially. That would be a big game changer. But barring a recession and Rubio...I don't really see the Republicans making further gains in '12.

(Dems are probably already preparing to make immigration and issue so they could choke whatever momentum Rubio could gain because if he opposes their immigration measures, the Hispanics will most likely oppose him. If he supports them, the Republicans will oppose him and then he's not on the ticket in '12. He's caught in a bind. I see him being President or Vice President one day, but not really in '12.)

Let's save this post and see how I'll do.

I'll be off this site for awhile now. Peace!
:hat:

 

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ktothe2 said:
Tomorrow, what's gonna happen is what we've been expecting. Democrats are gonna lose the House and probably the Senate (even if they hold on it's not gonna make a difference really.)

The President will probably work with Boehner on cutting the deficit for the short term and the debt for the long term. Or else he won't get anything done and he seems to like getting things done. So that's what'll happen.

The Tea Party will get disappointed. Similar to how the left got disappointed that the President got some (like 70%?) of what they wanted but not all, they were disappointed because of how much energy they put into the 2008 campaigns. The same will probably happen to the Tea Party. There's no way they can get everything they want because the President will have a magic super-duper veto pen. So much effort has been put into '10 that anything short of amazing will disappoint them and with the President signing on to cuts, he'll probably reclaim the Independents in the center and the Tea Party will lose steam.

If the Republicans DON'T give into the cuts and budget proposals the President and the few wandering Democrats propose, then they'll be seen as very disingenuous and it'll show. This election is very anti-Democratic, not very Pro-Republican and the polls show that. Polls also show 80% of the country support compromise and only 18% favoring the Republicans campaign promise to NOT compromise. Democrats have a history of compromising (Clinton's Presidency, and this presidency have shown some major compromises) while Republicans in recent memory don't (they had the Congress in the last decade so they didn't have to, but they didn't compromise with the Dems on anything really major with the exception of Scott Brown, Susan Collins, and Olympia Snowe.)

If the Republicans DON'T compromise, it'll work against them. If they do, it'll be in their favor but also in the President's favor which they may want to avoid but they probably can't. They really have few options. The one advantage of losing is that you can afford to be seen as doing nothing like the Republicans post-2008 were doing. It worked very well for them.

This will continue:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39948454
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39945872
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39946785

You'll continue to see a moderate economic recovery. That'll probably bring us to about 7-8% by 2012. A moderate economic recovery will mean strong consumer confidence which will mean positive poll numbers for those in office. People can care less about issues, they just care about their money. (Recession for Carter meant Reagan!, Recession for Bush41 meant Clinton, and this was a guy who had a 68% approval rating like 6-10 months before the election which everyone expected would be his reelection. Recession for Bush meant Obama.)

It would really take another recession for the Dems to lose the White House and that won't happen for two reasons:
1. Double-dip is unlikely because the economy has been moderately growing (nearly 1 million jobs in the private sector this year, 5 quarters of moderate growth...not really the stuff double-dips are made of.)

Roosevelt was overwhelming reelected with like 10% unemployment (was half than when he got into office though), Reagan was overwhelming reelected with 7.5 unemployment (it was 7.4% when he got into office but it peaked at 10.8% under his watch...this unemployment trend seems to be oddly similar to what's gonna happen with this recession though we're peaking at 10.2 and are gonna see something like 7.6 on election day) 

2. If there WAS a double-dip, Bernanke would bring in more QE because they'll probably blame him and he cares and he's shown that he's willing. They might hold off on QE because inflation seems to be getting back to normal so no one really cares about deflation TOO much, but if the economy were to get worse, and I don't see it happening, Bernanke would step right in. QE could be wrong in the longterm but it would provide a short term boost that would help officials in office.

Dems will reclaim Congress and the White House in '12, unless Rubio is on the ticket as VP in 2012. That would change everything because Hispanics could be split Dem and Republican potentially. That would be a big game changer. But barring a recession and Rubio...I don't really see the Republicans making further gains in '12.

(Dems are probably already preparing to make immigration and issue so they could choke whatever momentum Rubio could gain because if he opposes their immigration measures, the Hispanics will most likely oppose him. If he supports them, the Republicans will oppose him and then he's not on the ticket in '12. He's caught in a bind. I see him being President or Vice President one day, but not really in '12.)

Let's save this post and see how I'll do.

I'll be off this site for awhile now. Peace!
:hat:
 
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